Analyzed using Ask The Desk — AI-powered financial analysis at desk.in2trading.com
NVDA earnings analysis — NVIDIA (NVDA) reports its next earnings on August 26, 2026, with Wall Street expecting $2.07 EPS and $91.6B in revenue. Before that date arrives, we ran a full financial analysis through Ask The Desk to see what the data actually says — beyond the headlines. Here’s what we found.
The Growth Story Behind This NVDA Earnings Analysis
NVDA’s revenue trajectory over the last three years is unlike almost anything seen in large-cap stock market history:
- FY2024: $60.9B
- FY2025: $130.5B (+114%)
- FY2026: $215.9B (+65.5%)
That’s a 5-year revenue CAGR of 30.65%, growing from $10.9B in FY2020 to $215.9B in FY2026. Most recently, Q1 FY2027 (reported May 2026) came in at $81.6B — beating estimates of $78.4B.
The profitability behind that revenue is equally striking. Net profit margin sits at 55.6%, operating margin at 60.4%, and free cash flow reached $96.7B in FY2026 — up 58.9% year over year. NVIDIA’s Rule of 40 score stands at 121.1, a figure that signals elite-level growth and profitability combined.
NVDA Has Beaten Estimates Every Single Quarter
One of the most consistent patterns in the data is NVIDIA’s earnings beat streak. Over the last four quarters — and across all 30 quarters in the dataset — NVIDIA has beaten both EPS and revenue estimates every single time.
| Quarter | EPS Actual | EPS Estimate | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2027 | $1.87 | $1.76 | +6.3% |
| Q4 FY2026 | $1.62 | $1.54 | +5.2% |
| Q3 FY2026 | $1.30 | $1.26 | +3.2% |
| Q2 FY2026 | $1.05 | $1.01 | +4.0% |
EPS has grown from $1.05 to $1.87 in just four quarters — a 78% increase in one year. Revenue over the same period grew from $46.7B to $81.6B (+74.6%).
The beat margins have been tight and consistent — typically 3–6% on EPS — which suggests management guides conservatively and consistently delivers above expectations. If that pattern holds into August, actual results could exceed $2.13 EPS and $95B in revenue.
The Valuation Has Been Compressing — But Remains Premium
Despite a stock price near $214, NVIDIA’s valuation multiples have been compressing as earnings catch up to price:
| Year | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Net Margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 109.1x | 81.0x | 16.2% |
| FY2024 | 51.8x | 43.5x | 48.8% |
| FY2025 | 39.9x | 33.8x | 55.8% |
| FY2026 | 37.8x | 31.4x | 55.6% |
In this NVDA earnings analysis, the PEG ratio sits at 0.57 for FY2026. A PEG below 1.0 is conventionally considered favorable, suggesting the stock may be undervalued relative to its earnings growth. That said, a P/E of 37.8x and P/FCF of 54x mean the stock is still pricing in substantial future growth. Any slowdown in AI infrastructure spending would expose meaningful downside.
The Balance Sheet Is a Fortress
- Total assets: $206.8B vs total liabilities of just $49.5B
- Total debt: $11.4B — debt-to-equity of just 0.07
- Cash and short-term investments: $62.6B
- Current ratio: 3.91 | Working capital: $93.4B
- Altman Z-Score: 67.73 — deep in the safe zone with near-zero bankruptcy risk
The company returned $40.1B in buybacks and $974M in dividends in FY2026 alone — while spending just 2.8% of revenue on CapEx.
Breaking: NVIDIA Just Moved to Reinvent the PC
Just days before this article published, NVIDIA made one of its biggest strategic announcements in years. At Computex 2026 in Taipei on June 1, CEO Jensen Huang took the stage and declared that Microsoft and NVIDIA are going to “reinvent the PC.” CNBC
The new RTX Spark superchip — also called the N1X — is an Arm-based PC processor built in collaboration with Microsoft and designed by MediaTek. It fuses two of NVIDIA’s flagship chip types together with 128GB of unified memory, pairing a Blackwell GPU with a new custom Grace CPU. The chip is designed to run AI agents locally, on-device — what Huang called running “24/7, meter free.” CNBC
The RTX Spark will debut in the fall across more than 30 laptops and 10 desktops, with hardware partners including Microsoft, Dell, HP, ASUS, Lenovo, and MSI. CNBC
This matters for investors beyond the headline. NVIDIA has built its entire valuation on data center dominance — the hyperscalers buying billions in GPUs. The PC market is a new, massive addressable market that NVIDIA currently doesn’t participate in at the chip level. The laptop market alone ships roughly 150 million units per year. If NVIDIA can take even a fraction of that market, it opens a meaningful new revenue stream that isn’t dependent on continued AI capex from a handful of cloud giants.
Analysts see NVIDIA moving beyond the data center and to the so-called “edge,” as smaller devices become capable of running AI workloads without tapping the cloud. That shift — if it materializes — plays directly to NVIDIA’s strengths in AI inference. CNBC
There’s a wrinkle on the data center side too: NVIDIA’s next-generation Rubin GPU may face production delays at TSMC due to a redesign, with one analyst expecting the revised version to be finalized in late September or October — which could reduce Rubin’s production volumes in 2026. The redesign appears to be a competitive response to AMD’s upcoming MI450. Whether that creates a near-term air pocket in data center revenue is worth watching heading into the August print. tipranks
The Risks Are Real — Don’t Ignore Them
Customer concentration. The bulk of NVIDIA’s AI revenue comes from a small number of hyperscalers — Microsoft, Google, Meta, Amazon. Any slowdown in their AI capex could hit NVIDIA hard and fast.
Export controls. U.S. restrictions on chip exports to China have already cut off a meaningful revenue market. Escalating trade tensions could tighten this further.
Custom silicon competition. Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium, and Microsoft Maia are all targeting the same AI accelerator workloads. Gross margins have already compressed slightly from 75.0% (FY2025) to 71.1% (FY2026).
Supply chain. NVIDIA’s fabless model means they rely entirely on TSMC for manufacturing. Any disruption to Taiwan’s semiconductor supply chain would be catastrophic — and the Rubin redesign adds an additional variable here.
Valuation risk. With a beta of 2.24, NVIDIA moves more than twice as violently as the broader market. At a $5.2T market cap with a P/E near 38x, there is no margin for error.
What to Watch on August 26
Here’s what this NVDA earnings analysis says to focus on when August 26 arrives.
- EPS estimate: $2.07 — a beat above $2.13 maintains the pattern
- Revenue estimate: $91.6B — watch Data Center segment specifically
- Gross margin guidance: any further compression below 71% will be scrutinized
- Rubin timeline: any update on production delay and when volumes normalize
- RTX Spark / PC segment: early demand signals and revenue contribution timeline
- Forward guidance: Q3 FY2027 guidance will matter more than the Q2 beat itself
The analyst consensus price target sits at $313 — roughly 46% above the current price of $214.86. The data supports the bull case — but the risks are real and the margin for error is thin.
This NVDA earnings analysis was produced using Ask The Desk — AI-powered financial research at desk.in2trading.com. Want to run your own analysis on NVDA or any other stock? Try Ask The Desk at desk.in2trading.com — AI-powered financial analysis built for investors.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Main additions: new “Breaking” section covering Computex/RTX Spark, the Rubin redesign news woven in as a risk, and two new bullet points in the “What to Watch” section. The Rubin delay is worth flagging — it’s actually a mild risk factor that fits naturally into the earnings preview angle.